Leagues Cup final win is proof Inter Miami and Lionel Messi will win the MLS Cup playoffs
The Herons are the bookmakers' third favourite to win the MLS Cup despite sitting last in the league's overall table
The Leagues Cup tournament is finally over, it felt like it would never end, and now we all know that... Well, I’m not sure what the Leagues Cup tournament taught us other than Lionel Messi is better than the teams in Mexico’s Liga MX and Major League Soccer.
Messi appeared in seven Leagues Cup matches, scoring 10 goals and assisting one. If MLS fans ever wanted to know how the league’s teams would play against arguably the best player of all time, the answer is clear. MLS teams, for the most part, suck defensively against Messi. Despite the Argentine being 36, MLS defenders simply aren’t good enough.
How does Messi’s seven appearances in the Leagues Cup compare to his final season with Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1? Messi scored just 16 goals in 32 Ligue 1 matches last season. He also added 16 assists. With Paris Saint-Germain, Messi played as a second striker rather than as a right-wing, as he is doing with Inter Miami.
Messi is on pace to score more than 20 goals for Inter Miami in half a season. If the Argentine forward scores over 20 goals in half a season, which would be more than he did in 32 Ligue 1 games last term, then it is once again easy to say MLS and the Leagues Cup are a massive step down for him.
In the wake of Inter Miami’s Leagues Cup win, bookmakers have Inter Miami as the third-favourite team to win the MLS Cup. Firstly, was there any question that the Herons would win the Leagues Cup? Messi’s arrival coincided perfectly with the cup tournament, and it seemed predestined that Inter Miami would win it.
Of course, MLS would have preferred Inter Miami to defeat a Liga MX team in the final rather than Nashville SC. Why? A win over a Liga MX club would have likely attracted high viewership numbers on both sides of the border. It would have also given MLS further bragging rights over Liga MX. It doesn’t do MLS any good to have fans see Messi defeat a fellow league team.
It should come as no surprise to most football fans that Inter Miami are now the third favourite to win the MLS Cup. But that is only if you didn’t pay attention to the first half of the MLS season. I assume plenty of MLS “fans” weren’t paying attention to the first half of the league season.
Bookmaker Bet365, other bookmakers are available, have Inter Miami at odds of 9.00 (8/1) to win the MLS Cup. Only FC Cincinnati and reigning MLS Cup winners, Los Angeles FC, are ahead of Miami in odds. Before the Leagues Cup final, Miami peaked at 8.00 odds to win the MLS Cup and were ahead of Los Angeles.
Inter Miami will restart their MLS 2023 campaign following the Leagues Cup on Saturday, August 26 away to the New York Red Bulls. The club took the fewest points in MLS before the Leagues Cup break in July, with only 18 points from 22 games. Pre-Messi, Miami posted a pathetic record of 5W-3D-14L, scoring 22 goals and conceding 36. In the Leagues Cup tournament, Messi alone scored nearly half of Miami’s total MLS goals.
Fourteen points currently separate Inter Miami from the final MLS Eastern Conference playoff place. Nine of the 15 teams in the Eastern Conference will make the playoffs. It isn’t much of a competition when over half the teams in the conference make the postseason. But this is MLS, where everyone gets a participation award.
Inter Miami have 12 matches to rescue their MLS season and qualify for the playoffs. Thanks to their Leagues Cup adventure Miami has played the fewest number of matches in the Eastern Conference. The Chicago Fire currently sit in ninth place and the final playoff spot, with 32 points. Chicago have played 24 times already. Eighth-place CF Montreal are also on 32 points. They too could be caught by Miami along the way.
DC United are 10th in the standings and have played 25 matches. Meanwhile, New York Red Bulls (24 matches), Charlotte FC (24 matches), New York City FC (25 matches), and Toronto FC (25 matches) are all in front of Inter Miami.
There are 36 points up for grabs for Inter Miami. All they need is eight wins (16 points) to overcome the Chicago Fire. But that is based on Chicago and the other teams ahead of Miami not securing more points this season. With the way some of the teams have played, it is a possibility.
In 2022, only seven teams qualified for the MLS Cup playoffs. Seven wasn’t good enough and two additional playoff places were handed out for this season. Orlando City were the final team to make the Eastern Conference playoffs in 2022, with 48 points. They had an average of just 1.41 points per game. With two additional playoff places available, it will take fewer than 48 points to qualify for the postseason.
The parity in MLS is holding the league back. There are plenty of owners on both sides of the fence in MLS wanting to keep parity and end it - or at least modify it. Parity provides equality that creates complacency amongst everyone involved with the league from the ownership to the players to the fans.
The average points per game in MLS of the teams fighting for the final 2023 playoff place in the Eastern Conference helps to show Inter Miami can qualify for the postseason. Personally, I think Miami will win the MLS Cup, but don’t take my word for it.
Points per game as of August 21
CF Montreal 1.33
Chicago Fire 1.33
DC United 1.2
NYRB 1.21
Charlotte 1.13
NYCFC 1.04
Toronto FC 0.76
Inter Miami 0.82
Inter Miami played seven Leagues Cup games, winning five and drawing two. A five-win, two-draw record equals 17 points from 21 points on offer. In MLS play, 17 points is all Inter Miami need to overhaul the gap between themselves and the final Eastern Conference playoff place currently.
Inter Miami took 2.43 points per game in the Leagues Cup. That figure is nearly double the points per game average of CF Montreal and Chicago Fire. If Inter Miami continue the same form they showed in the Leagues Cup, and why wouldn’t they, then it shouldn’t be too hard for them to qualify for the MLS Cup playoffs. From there, it is knockout cup soccer, and I’d back Lionel Messi over the competition.
The Eastern Conference teams chasing the final playoff places should experience a drop-off in September. The long, hard season will take its toll. There will also be a mental edge Miami have over the competition thanks to Messi’s presence.
Inter Miami’s final 12 games are against:
NYRB
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
Sporting KC
Atlanta United
Toronto FC
Orlando City
NYCFC
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte FC
The Herons will have to play Charlotte FC again due to a postponed match. Half of Inter Miami’s final 12 matches will be against direct rivals for the final Eastern Conference playoff place. One of the remaining six games (Sporting KC) will be against a Western Conference team with an average of just 1.04 points per game.
Inter Miami will play Orlando City and Nashville SC, two teams they played in the Leagues Cup. Messi led Miami to a 3-1 win over Orlando City and a 1-1 draw with Nashville SC in the Leagues Cup final. Miami won the final on penalties 10-9.
The 2023 MLS season is set up for Inter Miami to qualify for the playoffs and win the MLS Cup. It is the ideal ending to the campaign for MLS’s head honchos. Yet, is it really the ending North American soccer needs?
Drew FC is not affiliated with any sports betting websites.