Why have Liverpool agreed a £110m transfer for Brighton's Moisés Caicedo after pursuing Southampton's Romeo Lavia all summer?
Liverpool pivot to Ecuadorian midfielder in British-record transfer
On Friday morning, two days before Liverpool kick off the 2023-24 season away to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, it was announced that the Reds had agreed to a £110 million transfer for Brighton’s Moisés Caicedo.
Many Liverpool supporters woke up wiping sleep from their eyes believing they were still dreaming. Yet, it was no dream. Liverpool had broken the bank to add a specialist No 6, although it wasn’t the player supporters expected to join the club.
Liverpool had pursued Southampton defensive midfielder Romeo Lavia for most of the summer. Having signed Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai for peanuts, the Anfielders looked set to add Lavia to the squad before the end of the transfer window. But Friday’s announcement surprised everyone, including fellow Premier League clubs.
After haggling over the price of Lavia for weeks and having three bids turned down by the Saints, Liverpool’s decision to pay £110m for Caicedo seemed to come out of left field. So, why have Liverpool agreed to a £110m transfer for Brighton's Caicedo after pursuing Southampton's Lavia all summer?
Moisés Caicedo is now Britain’s most expensive footballer
The Caicedo transfer deal is a British record, as Brighton make an incredible profit on a defensive midfielder that cost them just £4.5m in 2021. He began his career at Ecuador’s Independiente del Valle, turning professional as a 17-year-old. Brighton's incredible scouting network uncovered the strong, ball-winning defensive midfielder, but it took time for Caicedo to break into the Seagulls’ starting XI.
Caicedo started the 2021-22 season in Belgium playing for Beerschot in the First Division A. He made 12 appearances for Beerschot and impressed onlookers, influencing Brighton to recall him midway through the season. In April, he started his first match for Brighton and picked up an assist against Arsenal. Caicedo went on to start Brighton’s final eight games, losing just once during that time.
In 2022-23, Ecuadorian was an integral part of Brighton’s squad despite having his head turned by Chelsea and a possible transfer in January. He played 43 times, recorded 3,665 minutes, scored one goal, and added one assist in all competitions.
According to Fbref, Caicedo ranked in the 87th percentile in tackles per 90 minutes, with 2.83. His 1.56 interceptions per 90 minutes were good for a place in the 88th percentile. Both categories ranked Caicedo higher than Lavia. Caicedo also completed 88.6% of his passes, ranking him in the 94th percentile of midfielders in the Premier League. Lavia completed 85.6% of his passes in a struggling team.
Yes, the midfielders played in teams that experienced very different campaigns. Brighton qualified for Europe for the first time ever and Southampton were relegated. Brighton’s strong season was partly down to Caicedo’s involvement. He played 97% of the club’s Premier League matches and started 34 of the 37 games he was involved in.
Caicedo has far more experience playing in the Premier League than Lavia. The Ecuadorian racked up 3,799 minutes of Premier League football in one-and-a-half seasons. Lavia, on the other hand, recorded 1,578 fewer Premier League minutes. That is the equivalent of 17.5 matches. While some fans may overlook the difference in gametime, it makes a huge difference in the experience of the two players. Caicedo has played nearly half a season more of Premier League football.
Is Moisés Caicedo worth £60m more than Romeo Lavia?
It isn’t just based on the experience Caicedo has in the Premier League that influenced Liverpool to sign the midfielder. There are other reasons the Reds pivoted to the Ecuadorian. One of the reasons Liverpool were likely attracted to Caicedo is his experience of playing next to Mac Allister.
The Argentina World Cup winner had his best season in front of goal for Brighton in 2022-23. He scored four of his 10 goals from open play and added two assists. Caicedo was Mac Allister’s protection in Brighton’s midfield, allowing the Argentine to be the team’s creative force.
Caicedo will slot into the No 6 position vacated by Fabinho. Mac Allister played in the No 6 position against Darmstadt in Liverpool’s final preseason game, with Cody Gakpo forced into midfield. While it worked against Darmstadt in a friendly, it isn’t a sustainable way for Liverpool to play through the season. Mac Allister would be more comfortable as the No 10 on the left side opposite Szoboszlai.
Brighton were happy to sell Caicedo for a price they valued him at, which turned out to be more than £100m. Southampton valued Lavia at a minimum of £50m and were not willing to budge from that fee.
The club’s unwillingness to lower their asking fee wasn’t due to wanting Lavia to stay. Rather, it was due to the complexities of the sell-on clause inserted into Lavia’s contract. Manchester City are owed 20% of any transfer fee for Lavia after selling him to Southampton in the summer of 2022.
Lavia had three clauses put into his contract when he was sold to Southampton for £14m. Those clauses include: "a sell-on clause valued at 20% and the opportunity to match any future bids for the Belgium youth international." A buyback clause worth around £40 million is also in the Belgian’s contract.
If Liverpool had continued to increase their bids for Lavia, more money would have gone to Man City, a direct Premier League title rival. A £50m transfer fee would have seen City make £10m. It may not sound like much, but every little bit helps, especially when Manchester City are tipped to win the Premier League this season for a fourth consecutive season. Liverpool may have paid £110m for Caicedo, but all the money will go to Brighton.
The transfer fee between Liverpool and Brighton has been agreed, but Caicedo has not decided on personal terms. Some reports claim the player wants to go to Chelsea. Any desire to go to Stamford Bridge could change, however, due to the large transfer fee involved.
The £110m fee for Caicedo sees the Premier League’s spending hit a new high. This summer already saw Declan Rice join Arsenal for £105m and Kai Havertz went for £65m. Manchester City signed Josko Gvardoil for £77m, and Manchester United added Rasmus Hojlund for £72m. Along with the Premier League’s spending, Real Madrid signed Jude Bellingham for £113m. Bellingham now seems like a forgotten man after being salivated over by Premier League clubs just a few months ago.